Here we present the COVID-19 forecasts for Slovenia using semi-mechanistic Bayesian models. Details about the models are available here. Analysis is done based on public data gathered at COVID-19 Sledilnik. All computations and data management are running on ELIXIR-SI research infrastructure.

Combined complex model

Here we present the forecasts based on the combinedTDI model using natural splines or piece-wise constant function for the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2. Sensitivity analysis and the quality of out of time predictions are shown here.

Natural spline

Summary of the fitted model: